Anthony Davis will make an impact on defense this season, but what will we see from him on offense?
A veteran NBA player can expect every season to be like a roller-coaster ride, full of ups and downs with drama and thrills mixed in. But NBA rookies can expect a more traumatic experience, closer probably to a "jump from space" than anything because it's going to feel like the speed of the season and the games are at a breathtaking pace.
Still, we know some rookies will rise above and immediately prove their value in this league, while others will take a little longer to do so. With the season just days away, here's what we're looking for from the rookie class:
1. Can Anthony Davis learn to score this year?
Here's what we know: Davis is going to be a force on defense for the Hornets, thanks to his shot-blocking ability and quick feet. He reminds me of Joakim Noah on this end. We also know he'll be one of his team's best rebounders with his great hands and desire to hit the boards despite being so thin (rebounding will get even easier for him as he gains strength). As we saw during his freshman season at Kentucky, he can impact games without scoring.
But as the top overall pick, that ultimately won't be good enough. So the big question is: When will he take a big step up on offense? If he can become a scoring/shooting force while dominating the paint on defense and the boards, he'll be a future MVP candidate. Right now, though, that's a big if.
Dwight Howard averaged 12 points per game on 52 percent shooting as a 19-year-old rookie. If Davis, who is also 19, can average 10-plus points per game, the Hornets should be thrilled.
2. Is Portland's Damian Lillard the next Rose/Westbrook/Irving?
The NBA has seen some superstar point guards enter the league these past few years -- Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving -- and each of them showed much of that potential as rookies. Lillard showed that type of talent during summer league in Las Vegas.
The sixth overall pick seems headed for a long career as a starting point guard, which would mean Portland had a successful draft. But if Lillard is able to score and run his team as he did in Vegas and in some games this preseason, then the Blazers could very well end up with the top player from this draft.
3. Is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist going to be an impact player?
As the No. 2 overall pick in the draft with a few true elite talents still available (Harrison Barnes, Lillard, Bradley Beal, even Andre Drummond), MKG has a lot of pressure to play at a high level. Having Bobcats owner Michael Jordan suggest he was their "Pippen" only adds to those expectations. But there is some doubt that he is going to be that special.
MKG has been physically superior to his competition for years, but that advantage is over now. And while he might play harder than many, the league is filled with guys who are just as athletic and hustle as much as him, many of whom are stronger than him. He doesn't have to merit ROY consideration for the season to be considered a success, but earning a consistent starting position by season's end would be a great place to mark his first year.
4. Were experts right last year when Harrison Barnes was atop draft lists?
Barnes showed off huge upside in Vegas as a hungry scorer and overall playmaker. He's also proving this preseason that he'll be a legit deep shooting threat. In addition, he has a huge defensive upside to go along with a big and athletic body for a wing player.
If he can prove to be a do-it-all forward for the Warriors (albeit in small steps this season), he will make Bobcats fans awfully restless unless MKG makes a similar impact. Barnes is just 14 months older than MKG but far more polished on the perimeter.
5. Are Andre Drummond/Jeremy Lamb better off in the D-League?
The argument for not sending a rookie to the D-League is that a rookie is better off with veterans around him, learning from them and the coaches who will be guiding him. So even if Drummond does not play, he'll learn from practice, watching games, working daily with Greg Monroe, etc.
On the other hand, nothing beats playing time for young players, who can develop reference points to learn from at future practices. And playing time helps develop basketball IQ, not to mention conditioning and an overall feel for the game. If Drummond ends up in the rotation for Detroit early on -- and he has been impressive this preseason -- there will be no debate. If he does not, this becomes a serious question because his talent, draft position and upside all create pressure for him to become a solid player, if not a star.
Lamb is in a different climate, currently playing behind Houston's leading scorer Kevin Martin and veteran Carlos Delfino. Lamb showed excellent scoring skills in Vegas, but does not look to be ready to play a complete game just yet. He would destroy the D-League as a scorer and could gain valuable experience at the details of the game. If he is not playing in Houston, expect to see him score 20 points per game in Rio Valley.
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